India may have surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, putting pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to produce more jobs and maintain the country’s rapid growth.

According to the World Population Review, an independent census and demographics organisation, South Asia’s population was 1.417 billion in 2022.

China recorded 1.412 billion on Tuesday, the first drop since the 1960s.

India, with half its population under 30, will be the world’s fastest-growing major economy. As the nation shifts away from farm jobs, Modi must generate jobs for millions of individuals joining the workforce each year to maximise the demographic dividend.

The UN expected the milestone later this year. WPR reported 1.423 billion Indians on Jan. 18.

Macrotrends’ current forecast for India is 1.428 billion. After delaying population surveys owing to pandemics, the country did not publish its once-a-decade census statistics in 2021.

Last year’s decision to limit Indian soldiers’ tenure to four years showed the administration’s struggle to create jobs and provide retirement benefits. Modi, who will seek reelection in May 2024, wants to boost manufacturing to 25% from 14%.

Sonal Varma, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., said that infrastructure investments, labor-intensive manufacturing, and services can create jobs. “We are seeing the early building elements of that.”

Despite India’s tremendous economic growth pre-Covid and its comparatively good recovery from the pandemic, 800 million people still receive government food handouts, the world’s largest.

Asia’s third-largest economy currently produces enough food. It produces rice, wheat, and sugar second-most. With its increasing middle class, India is the largest sugar user and edible oil importer. It consumes the second-most gold, steel, and crude oil. It has the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market.

WPR predicts India’s population to grow till 2050, despite a slowdown.

Bloomberg Economist Eric Zhu called China’s small downturn a “growth crushing headwind for a long time” in his Jan. 18 report. According to the National Statistics Bureau, China lost 850,000 people in 2022.

The UN projects that eight countries—the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania—will account for more than half of the worldwide population growth between 2022 and 2050.